No Hegemon, No Peace; the Balkans Struggle Between Brussels and Moscow

Often left at the periphery of European history and policy dialogues, the Balkans serve as a core geopolitical and strategic point where often larger power struggles develop. The region's historical past as an intersection of European and Russian imperial legacies make it a place where great power disengagement is pronounced. Today, split between EU integration processes, Russian influence, Chinese economic expansion and internal issues; the region is once again faced with another challenge: US current withdrawal from institutional frameworks and multilateral leadership. 

The rise of the “America First” approach which prioritizes bilateral deals over multilateral obligations has drastically challenged the US’s relations with the Balkans (Overhaus). Washington's shift from alliances and commitments to protectionist policies has positioned the Balkans, where stability has long relied on the support of external actors, in a power vacuum between EU integration abilities and the well-established Russian influence (Overhaus). As America’s engagement continues to decline, the region is even more exposed to the Kremlin which not only has a long-historical past with the Balkans but also an embedded strategy of economic and cultural ties positioned to propagandate especially in times of Western hesitation (Brands).

Since the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s the Western Balkans have represented precarious equilibrium between fragility and strategic importance (Morina). As an example, Kosovo has relied on the US’s involvement for pushing state and security negotiations forward ever since 1999 NATO intervention and the country’s 2008 proclamation of independence (Morina). On the other hand, the confidence in the abilities of the European Union for responsibly managing the conflict between Kosovo and Serbia has also shown to be incoherent and unreliable (Morina). The EU sanctions on Kosovo during the tensions in the northern municipalities have drawn a lot of criticism for being unfair, especially when Serbia was not subjected to the same pressure despite instigating a destabilizing action during the 2023 attack on Banjska by a Serbian armed group (Cinciripini). The country’s long-term security and economic growth are deeply dependent on the Euro-Atlantic institutions, however, with the US’s recent lack of engagement in multilateral negotiations and the limited EU integration the country’s democratic aspirations and development remain a critical question (Cinciripini).

On the contrary, the Republic of Serbia has also shown conflicting geopolitical aspirations as it has officially stated its EU membership as a strategic goal but continues to maintain close ties with Russia (Andoni). Besides this, the county’s difficult relationship with the West, defined by the tragedy of the NATO bombing campaign alongside with the Western recognition of Kosovo, has further generated this long-standing animosity and skepticism towards the EU (McBride). Russia leverages these concerns by employing a set of soft power initiatives alongside economic and military influence aiming to project influence within Southeastern Europe which over the last decade has faced a large integration towards the West (McBride). While Serbia remains geographically and politically tied to the European Union, its connection to the Slavic ethnicity, Orthodox Christianity, common history of resistance to Western rule and most importantly UN veto power greatly affect its alignment towards the Russian sphere of influence (Andoni). Ultimately, the US’s limited involvement could mean a situation which might give Belgrade confidence to pursue more aggressively its claims over Kosovo especially with Russia political support and veto power and the absence of Washington's diplomatic pressures (Andoni). 

This dynamic, however, does not stop at the region of the Western Balkans. Countries who, even though are embedded into the Euro-Atlantic framework, are still vulnerable to the power vacuum created by the US shift towards “America first” economic and security nationalism. One specific country who has deep cultural, historical and economic ties to Russia is Bulgaria (Conley). Even though Bulgaria joined the eurozone in 2026, citizens still have a lot of sympathy for Russia - being pro-European and pro-Russian is not mutually exclusive for many Bulgarians, rather, it is a national imperative that has shown up in the country’s actions (Conley). Alongside this, the Kremlin has maintained control over Bulgaria's media, political parties, and energy industry allowing it to create a narrative of Russia as a defender of shared values and the West as pursuing its own self-interest  (Conley). For instance, this concept was further amplified with the EU sanctions on Russian oil, the main fuel supply in Bulgaria, which was portrayed by many media outlets as another “proof” of the Western institutions’ ignorance and the US’s indifference towards European economic challenges (Zankina). Overall, Russian influence continues to grow, spreading the idea of Washington prioritizing its own geopolitical aspirations while being detached from the consequence of its smaller allies  (Zankina). 

Ultimately, the Balkans continue to showcase the effects of great power disengagement especially in terms of post-Pax Americana European security. Washington's withdrawal from strategic leadership and direct political involvement in the area leaves room for alternative political and energy agendas. Moscow has made greater use of this opportunity to bolster its power through political alliances, media dominance, and energy dependence presenting itself as a reliable “friend”. Thus, the region runs the risk of becoming a geopolitical void that is increasingly influenced by Russian influence if the United States withdraws and the European Union does not take significant action. The question now is not whether the EU should take the lead in the Balkans, but rather if it can.

About the Author

Elitsa Tsvetanova is a sophomore at the American University of Rome who is majoring in International Relations with a minor in Peace and Conflict Studies. She possesses a keen interest within the field of human rights and is fluent in Bulgarian and English. Outside of AUR she can be found, if the weather permits, kitesurfing.

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